“Climate-induced migration will shape the world’s future”

Dr. Ahmet İçduygu, Koç University Migration Research Center (MiReKoç) director and a professor at the Department of International Relations and Sociology at Koç University, talked to Bizden Haberler about Turkey’s changing migration dynamics in recent years. Professor İçduygu also told us about the causes and consequences of climate migration, currently one of the most discussed issues worldwide.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM)’s 2024 report states that there are about 281 million international migrants worldwide–that’s 3.6% of our world’s population. How do you interpret these numbers in the context of today’s migration dynamics?

Actually this really comes down to globalization, especially in the last 30 years. It’s simply an outcome of people becoming more mobile because transport and communication technologies have improved so much. Not only has it become easier to travel, but we can also get information about other parts of the world instantly. That information flow is important for moving around the world, you have to know a place to consider moving there. The migration I’m referring to here is really an umbrella concept covering all border crossings–which is international migration.

We tend to think of migration as something permanent, but things like short stays, for a set period in education for both students and faculty members, are also part of it. So we really need to take a much broader view of the term “migration”. Ultimately, the whole world is being impacted by it. There are two major reasons for migration. The first is economic, meaning people migrate to access better living conditions. The second is what we call political migration, which is defined as refugee movements in response to conflicts. Now in Turkey’s case, we used to think of it as a country that sent migrants–mostly in the context of migration to Europe (particularly to Germany). However since the 1990s, and even before the arrival of the Syrians, Turkey actually began receiving migrants from a much broader range of origins. Previously, we generally took in people from nearby and/or Turkish-speaking areas, such as the Balkans; for the first time beginning in 1990, we became a country that also received people who were neither Turkish nor Muslim. Our country’s economic development is also a contributing factor. For instance it’s widely known that the workers many people now rely on for domestic services–things like housework, childcare, and elder care–are mainly coming from the Turkic Republics. Political issues in our country’s near abroad are another contributing factor. Regime change in Iran brought in large numbers of Iranians, followed decades later by influxes prompted by the Iran-Iraq War. We see this process repeated in the case of Afghanistan and, most recently, Syria. Turkey is a dynamic setting for different migration patterns because it simultaneously receives migrants, sends migrants, and serves as a transit country for migrants. Since the early 2000s, even though thousands of migrants and refugees from various countries and regions approached us primarily as a transit stop, we are gradually becoming a country where people decide to settle. There’s also the fact that when we talk about migration, we usually focus on the movement of poor people. But on a larger scale, we have to consider the migration of students, university graduates, skilled workers, and the workforce as well. This is something Turkey has been affected by, particularly over the last two to three decades.

The IOM report notes that the current displacement crisis is only worsening due to environmental impact and climate change. What are the key parameters used when we talk about and analyze climate migration?

In recent years, the concept of climate-induced migration specifically addresses the geographical movement linked to changing environmental and climatic conditions. We really need to divide this situation into two parts though. One of those parts involves migration that’s caused directly by shifts in environmental conditions or by climate change itself. The most striking examples of this will happen relatively soon in the Pacific with islands like Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji. They’re facing submergence over the next decade as rising sea levels caused by accelerating deglaciation essentially put these islands underwater. The second impact of climate change–and we could call this an indirect one–is how global warming alters precipitation patterns, which affects agricultural production and, in turn, changes the economies of the people living there. In this case, we’re usually talking about rural-to-urban migration, and it generally takes place within the country. We believe that climate-induced migration is going to alter migration dynamics in many countries. For example, in the case of farming that I mentioned, migration does not occur immediately, but over the long term, this situation hurts the surrounding economy. It creates food security issues. You either end up getting poorer, or you decide you want to improve your life and move somewhere else. In short, we can see that the slow effects of climate change are likely to drive migration from rural areas towards cities. In this sense, climate-induced migration is one of the most important issues that will affect the world in the long term.

What exactly is the legal status of people who become climate migrants?

This is an important issue. The concept of climate migration sometimes gets confused with that of “refugee”. We have the 1951 Geneva Convention, which provides an international structure for those migrating due to political reasons. This legal framework is what allows us to officially define people as refugees. Asylum seekers have similar rights enshrined within the same body of law. Climate-induced migration would seem to be in the category of forced migration but the legal debate on this is still ongoing. Nevertheless neither “climate-induced refugee” nor “climate-induced asylum seeker” has yet emerged as an international concept.

What kind of pressure do you foresee climate migration creating for our cities, labor markets, and vulnerable groups? 

When we start thinking about how climate change affects the economy, it immediately becomes clear that this is a governance issue–it’s essentially a problem of public administration and urban management. We simply didn’t have this on our agenda before. Now however, we do have a Ministry of Environment, which has been given both political and policy-making missions. We’re also witnessing efforts to deal with these issues as the municipal-organization level. As I said a moment ago, there are points at which we’re affected by climate migration both directly and indirectly. What’s also key however is that this issue has now become very much politicized. As speeches at the UN General Assembly–particularly the one given by Trump–show, there are actually two extreme viewpoints when it comes to climate change. There’s this tendency to frame the issue as a doomsday scenario. That’s an overstatement. However there are things that humanity and countries do need to do before the end of this century. Then you have those–like Trump–who have recourse to populist rhetoric for political purposes. Some countries act purely based on their own economic interests–for example, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement–but there are other countries that are hesitant about whether or not to sign such agreements.

Ultimately if we want to ensure a decent environment for future generations, we absolutely need to start making much smarter, more rational decisions and also start developing serious long-term programs. 

Could you tell us about MiReKoç’s general approaches and priorities in the fulfillment of its mission?

MiReKoç was one of the first research centers established within a university in Turkey. We view migration as an umbrella concept, which means we are fundamentally interdisciplinary. It is not only social scientists; we have also economists, engineers, and even physicians who study the causes and consequences of migration on our team.

That’s essential because migration is a deeply human issue that involves many different types of mobility. Our main priority is doing scientific research. Over the last two decades, we’ve become a well-known and established institution both here in Turkey and internationally. It’s important to note that we actually launched our work right at the beginning of a period when migration started affecting Turkey much more directly. We also focus on training young researchers. We try to examine the political aspects of migration through the lens of both Turkish and international politics. As I mentioned, we’re not just conducting our own research: we involve students right from the undergraduate level, with our master’s and doctoral students also getting included in comprehensive, two-pronged research. For instance, just a year ago we oversaw a thesis project that focused on how climate change affects agriculture and its reflections on migration. So, yes, climate migration is very much part of our ongoing research. The changing global landscape constantly puts critical issues in front of us. One example is population aging, which has massive economic and social implications; this is a key global issue that affects every single country. We are actively trying to connect demographic shifts with the field of migration. In short, we carry out research projects and form global academic collaborations on new issues that enter our agenda, both in Turkey and around the world.